Well, we missed a prediction in the last round, as the Dodgers proved no match for the Phillies, but with our Yankee prediction the Eye is now 5-1 this postseason. The World Series may prove the toughest series to predict yet, however – they appear to be fairly evenly matched, with similar strengths and weaknesses. Let’s take a look at how this series breaks down.
Offensively, both clubs are extremely strong. Each led their league in most major categories – runs, home runs, slugging percentage, and OPS. The Yankees’ raw numbers are better, but remember they have the benefit of the DH – overall, allowing for that and the fact that both home parks are conducive to offense, I rate the offenses pretty close to even. As we discussed last week, the Phillies as a team actually fared slightly better against left-handed pitching than against righties, which was a surprise – likewise the Yankees also fared slightly better against southpaws. This matters because both teams have two left-handed starters, and with Cliff Lee and C.C. Sabathia both slated to start Game 4 on short rest, it’s a good bet that each team will face a right-handed starter only once or twice in the whole series. I think the Yankee offense has the advantage here, because while the Phillies as a whole fared well against lefties, Ryan Howard has traditionally struggled against lefties. In addition, while their other lefty sluggers, Chase Utley and Raul Ibanez, have hit lefties better than righties in 2009, both have better numbers against righties for their careers. Oftentimes in-season numbers can be kind of fluky because of the limited number of at-bats – career stats vs. lefties often tell the true tale. In the Phillies’ case, three of their top four batters figure to be at a disadvantage against Andy Pettitte and C.C. Sabathia.
The Yankees are far more balanced at the plate – their slugging first baseman is a switch-hitter who has been slightly better against lefties in his career; Jorge Posada and Nick Swisher are also switch-hitters. A-Rod and Derek Jeter bat righty, while Johnny Damon, Robinson Cano, and Hideki Matsui bat lefty. As you can tell, it will be a lot more of a challenge for the Phillies to neutralize the Yankees’ lineup by simply putting a lefty on the hill.
On the mound, as we noted, both teams employ two lefty starters. All four are of high quality, but again I give the Yankees a slight edge here because their lefties have MUCH better numbers against left-handed batters – Lee and Cole Hamels are good against lefties, but not as dominant as Sabathia and Pettitte are at shutting left-handed hitters down. The Game 2 pairing is also fascinating – Pedro Martinez turned back the clock with seven shutout innings against the Dodgers. Pedro has a history of rising to the moment, and he’s going to be well-rested, but he’s also 37 and likely to pitch in the coldest weather he’s seen in years. Given the Phillies’ likely struggles against Sabathia, Game 2 shapes up as a crucial game for Philly to make the series competitive.
The bullpen comparison is also interesting – I’ve been slamming the Phillies ‘pen for two rounds, and for two rounds they’ve done the job. The Yankees’ bullpen hasn’t been able to replicate their regular season dominance (aside from the usual excellence of Mariano Rivera). Phil Hughes has struggled, as has Joba Chamberlain (who also was a regular-season disappointment). Still when evaluating I have to take the season body of work over the past few weeks and conclude that the Yankees still have an edge in the bullpen, due in large part to Rivera’s dominance and ability to go more two innings or more on occasion.
Among the ‘little things’ – Philly doesn’t have any superb DH possibilities on their bench, but the Yankees will be hampered by losing Matsui’s excellent bat when playing in Philly. I rate Charlie Manuel as a better manager than Joe Girardi – Girardi has shown a tendency to ‘overmanage’ while Manuel has been aggressive but not overly so. A cold/rain postponement would probably favor neither team, as both teams would love to only use three starters for the whole series if possible.
So who wins? Again, we say it every round but ANYTHING IS POSSIBLE in a short series. The difference between the two teams is small enough that any result short of a sweep wither way would not surprise me. Having said that, the Yankees have the lefty pitchers to stall the Phillies’ attack, they have the dominant closer, and the deeper lineup. As much as it pains me, I’ve thought all season that the Yankees had the best team in baseball and they’ve done nothing in October to change my mind. I’ll be rooting for the Phils, but the pick is YANKEES IN SIX.
Friday we’ll FINALLY look at the Eye’s regular-season MLB predictions - and where we went right and wrong.
Dave Glass can be reached at buggyracer@verizon.net.
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