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November 3rd, 2009

Forecast: H1N1 Pandemic To Cost Canadian Economy More Than SARS

AHN Staff

Winnipeg, Manitoba (AHN) - A second round of Influenza A (H1N1) pandemic, which has officially been declared by federal health officials, could hurt the Canadian economy more than the SARS pandemic.

According to estimates by the International Center for Infectious Diseases, up to eight million more Canadians would be sick swine flu this season than a regular flu season, which could cause a spike in absenteeism in offices and affect business activities.

Other potential negative effects of the H1N1 pandemic are holding back on retail spending, and less tourism and travel activities. On a worldwide scope, the World Bank estimates the swine flu pandemic could reduce global gross domestic product between 0.7 to 4.8 percent.

Some Canadian companies are anticipating the effect of sick employees on their systems and are now testing alternative arrangement. A major Canadian telecom firm's investor relation unit asked employees to work from home for a week to tests its remote access systems.

Schulich School of Business director for health industry management program Amin Mawani explained the higher price tag of $63.6 billion forecast by a German insurance firm on the Canadian economy compared to the $2 billion cost of the SARS outbreak in 2003 is because SARS was a hospital-based ailment, while H1N1 is community-based and national.

Although Canadian business owners say they could handle absenteeism rates of 25 to 30 percent for weeks, only 22 percent of companies surveyed by the Ontario Chamber of Commerce last month have an emergency plan ready, and 27 percent are in different stages of developing one.

To help more Canadian companies prepare for the second wave of H1N1 pandemic, the ICID and the Canadian Chamber of Commerce launched a website with online planning tools for small enterprises and scheduled seminars in 15 Canadian cities and webinars in both English and French languages.

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